AKB48's 4th Senbatsu Prediction: Risk It To Get The Biscuit

Every year there are even more girls in the running, but this year they are even more spots available.

Senbatsu can be pretty predictable. There only tends to be one or two big surprises. Now that Acchan's is out of the running, where will her voting block go?

1. Takahashi Minami [↑ / 22(7), 17(6), 13(5)]
2. Oshima Yuko [- / 22(2), 17(1), 13(2)]
3. Kashiwagi Yuki [- / 22(3), 17(8), 13(9)]
4. Shinoda Mariko [- / 22(4), 17(3), 13(3)]
5. Watanabe Mayu [- / 22(5), 17(5), 13(4)]
6. Itano Tomomi [↑ / 22(7), 17(4), 13(7)]
7. Kojima Haruna [↓ / 22(6), 17(7), 13(6)]
8. Sashihara Rino [↑ / 22(9), 17(19), 13(27)]
9. Matsui Rena [↑ / 22(10), 17(11), 13(29)]
10. Takajo Aki [↑ / 22(12), 17(13), 13(23)]
11. Miyazawa Sae [- / 22(11), 17(9), 13(14)]
12. Matsui Jurina [↑ / 22(14), 17(10), 13(19)]
13. Yokoyama Yui [↑ / 22(19)]
14. Kitahara Rie [↓ / 22(13), 17(16), 13(13)]
15. Minegishi Minami [- / 22(15), 17(14), 13(16)]
16. Yamamoto Sayaka [↑ / 22(28)]
Bumped Out of Senbatsu: Kasai Tomomi, Sato Amina, and Akimoto Sayaka

The predictable result would be Oshima Yuko returning to center. However, just to be crazy (and if it turns out I'm right it'll be so much more awesome) I am guessing that Takahashi Minami will steal it from Oshima. Takahashi Minami is a frequent MC or guest on TV programs. She also got a pretty big push in GIVE ME FIVE. But my main reason is that I think Acchan fans will move over to Takahashi. Plus, everyone likes a challenge. It will be either they mostly move to one girl or spread out among various members.

We might see a lower count for the top members because there are more spots in the overall ranking. I also suspect members who are on the lower end of senbatsu might have a better turn out in hopes that they don't get pushed out. For example, I predicted regular senbatsu member Kasai Tomomi won't make it to senbatsu this year. Her fans and ones of Minegishi Minami might come out in force this year for them to retain their position.

I have a feeling that Takajo Aki and Yokoyama Yui will rise in the ranking due to increased exposure. For that matter, if you are a member of a sub-group you have a better shot when it comes to elections. The reason why I believe Takajo Aki in particular has a good shot is because the smaller-cast version of Naruhodo High School includes her. Therefore, she is likely to be popular in Japan.

Onto Matsui Jurina (SKE48) and Yamamoto Sayaka (NMB48). Due to the increased popularity and appearances of NMB48 and SKE48 they are likely to have more votes from the casual fan demographic. I also think fans of Matsui Jurina will want to show her how much they appreciate her dedication considering her illnesses and her decrease in rank in the previous election.

Finally there is Itano Tomomi. I am going to test a theory this year. It is that Itano Tomomi has on and off years in the senbatsu elections. I think people assume she is guaranteed a high rank, but then she doesn't. Because of that, her fans try harder the following year. They then make the assumption she will hold that spot.

It is also going to be the year of combating goddesses. The fans of Shinoda Mariko and Watanabe Mayu both view their oshi as an empress. Shinoda is active outside of AKB48, but then Watanabe has her solo debut. Then there is Sato Amina. She never makes it into senbatsu these days, except during elections. Will her fans work harder to attain her a senbatsu spot? So, we'll see.