Poll: Next to Graduate from Morning Musume?

Let us go from oldest to youngest to discuss about why they might graduate.  Remember this is not about who you want, but who you think.


Ai
She is the oldest, but it is not always the oldest who leaves.  She has had the most solo work out of all the current members, so maybe to go solo?  She has talked about that her first choice is takarazuka, but she thinks she is too short.  There are some shorter women in takarazuka.  She has also done more acting jobs than other members.  She releases plenty of photobooks, but she is short to become a model.


JunJun
Yup, she is one year younger than Ai but she has had no solo lines in any of their singles.  She is placed either on the sides or in the back.  Her singing has improved, and with the Shanghai unit she might have more reason to stay.  However, that unit is only temporary.  She can wait it out and hope, or leave while she is in her early 20s.  The only problem is that she is not well known in Japan, and she is Chinese.  Outside of Hello!Project she might have trouble finding something better.


Risa
Some say that if Ai goes Risa will leave with her, similar to Ogawa and KonKon.  She doesn't have much going on outside of Morning Musume.  I also don't see her getting a solo opportunity.  I think she would leave just to move on to a different chapter of her life.


Eri
She also lacks outside opportunity.  She does release a lot of photobooks so modeling is a possibility.  In terms of subgroups she stands an okay chance with Tanpopo.


Reina
Reina is the second most likely to get a solo career.  Besides that I don't see much outside forces pulling her.  She also gets plenty of lines and shares the spotlight with Ai.


Sayumi
Sayumi loves idols and says she loves the group.  She is basically the only member who appears without the group on TV.  Sayumi is one of the most well known current members because she is a TV celebrity.  She isn't given many solo lines.  She is the leader of v u den, which suits her sexy image.  She also does a lot of photobooks, and even modeling outside of the group.  She might decide to go with her strengths modeling and being a personality. 


LinLin
LinLin is one of the better singers, but (like JunJun) she isn't given any solo lines.  She is also in the Shanghai unit, but it is only for the expo.  LinLin has a similar situation to JunJun, but her younger age helps her.  Plus, she is the leader of Mini Moni.


Aika
Aika doesn't get much lines, so I don't know why people think Tsunku likes her.  Unlike the pandas, if she chooses to leave she has a better chance finding something else.  It is clear that she isn't completely happy.  She repeats that she really wants a photobook.  She is the youngest, so she has the most to wait it out for. Although, if she leaves now she will have more time to develop a new career while she is still under 20.