It makes the most sense. She is the oldest and has been a member for a while now. She also does the most solos, even released a solo song. She has done the most acting work. Plus, her first choice is joining a takarazuka troupe. I don't know what the fans or Tsunku would do if she left. She is one of the most popular members. She also gets the most solo lines. On top of all that, some fans think that if she leaves Niigaki Risa will go with her. Reina did say she wanted to be leader.
The only one that was close to Takahashi was Michishige Sayumi. She had 9/33 votes. She is a regular on multiple TV shows. She, I believe, is the most well known member of the group. She has a blog and often puts out photobooks. So she could say she was leaving to model, but I think she would become a talent. Unlike Takahashi she is not considered one of the best singers or dancers. She also is behind Kamei Eri and Niigaki Risa in solo lines. She is just above Mitsui and the Pandas in push by the producers. Therefore if she left I don't think it would hurt her career. If Takahashi left she would risk having a solo career like Iida Koari. The fact that Mano Erina, the only current solo artist, is not getting as much of a push means there is an even bigger risk of disappearing.
Final Results:
1. Takahashi Ai (12 votes)
2. Michishige Sayumi (9 votes)
3. Niigaki Risa (4 votes)
4. Mitsui Aika (3 votes)
5. Tanaka Reina (2 votes)
6. Kamei Eri, LinLin, & JunJun (1 vote)
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